Ukraine developments undermine Putin’s image as ‘Mr Security’

Kursk.

It was one of the first words we wrote and spoke as “Maclisten” correspondents.

In 2000, we reported on the sinking of the Kursk submarine in the icy waters of the Barents Sea. One hundred and eighteen submariners died in that report.
Vladimir Putin has been president for less than half a year. We can still remember the Russian TV channels condemning him for his handling of the disaster.

This week marks 24 years since the sinking of the K-141 Kursk. This time the Kursk region, where Ukrainian troops launched their surprise offensive and where they have been occupying the area for nine days now.

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But the Russia of 2024 is very different from the Russia of 2000.

This time there is no sign of criticism of President Putin on Russian TV; There is no doubt on his decision-making; There is no suggestion that it is his invasion of Ukraine that has led to this dramatic moment. Then again, the Kremlin has spent a quarter of a century establishing tight control over Russian media and messaging.

Nevertheless, will these events harm Vladimir Putin?

This is a question our team has been asked many times over the past few days:

Ukraine developments undermine Putin’s image as ‘Mr Security’

In 2022, when Ukraine sank the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, the warship Moskva

Again a few months later after Russian troops retreated from northeastern Ukraine

And again in 2023 during the Wagner Rebellion, when armed mercenaries marched on Moscow – posing a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin’s authority.
President Putin has been through it all, apparently unscathed. He is confident that he can overcome this latest challenge.

But here’s the thing. Wagner’s rebellion ended in a day.

Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia has been ongoing for more than a week. The longer this continues, the greater the pressure on the Russian leadership and potentially the greater the loss of President Putin’s authority.

Through his two-and-a-half decades in power, Mr. Putin has cultivated the image of “Mr. Security,” the only man in this vast country capable of keeping Russians safe and secure.

His so-called “special military operations” (a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) were presented to the Russian public as a way to increase Russia’s national security.
Two and a half years into this war there is not much sign of “safe and secure” here.

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Russia has more NATO on its borders, Sweden and Finland have joined the NATO alliance; Russian cities are coming under regular Ukrainian drone strikes; Now Ukrainian troops are occupying Russian territory.

Through his choice of language, Vladimir Putin is trying to show the Russian people that there is no need to panic.

He avoided using the word “invasion” when referring to Ukrainian incursions. Instead, he spoke of the “situation in the border area” or “what is happening”. The Kremlin leader also called Ukraine’s attack “a provocation.”

What will the Russian president do next?

Don’t expect him to pick up the phone and call Kiev. Russian officials have made it clear that they have put the idea of ​​peace talks on hold after the Ukraine attack.

Not that there was going to be any large-scale discussion.

Indeed, this week leader Vladimir Putin announced exactly what his intention was: “…to force the enemy from Russian territory.”

It’s one thing to say. It’s another thing to do. Despite the deployment of reinforcements to the Kursk region, the Russian military has yet to regain control of this part of Russia.

As workers set up seating and screens for an event, Edith Piaf’s classic, Je ne Regret Rin (No, I Regret Nothing) played on a large video screen and echoed across Red Square.

It was a very surreal moment.

Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of remorse for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

He has no regrets about the decisions he has made since then.

If his public statements reflect his current state of mind, he still believes that this war has only one possible outcome: Russian victory.